A foreign act: Serbia will revisit the law on foreign agents
The Serbian "Movement of Socialists", which is part of the ruling coalition, will promote the adoption of the law on foreign agents. Aleksandar Vulin, the country's deputy prime minister and leader of the pro-government party, told Izvestia. In January, protests intensified in the country, due to which the Prime Minister of the Republic resigned. Against this background, Vulin did not rule out holding early parliamentary elections. At the same time, he said, they are generally not required, as the parliamentary majority "is stable and relies on the support of citizens". Possible ways out of the political crisis in Serbia and President Aleksandar Vucic's position on the adoption of the law on foreign influence - in the exclusive material of "Izvestia".
Can Serbia adopt the law on foreign agents?
Part of the Serbian government will seek the adoption of the law on foreign agents against the background of a difficult political situation in the country.
- "Movement of Socialists" will not give up its intention to pass the law on foreign agents. Color revolutions cannot be carried out without a lot of money, and it is allocated and distributed through NGOs. There is the experience of Russia, China, Belarus and other countries that have defeated the West's attempts to destroy them in the streets. So far we don't have the support of the ruling majority, but we won't stop fighting. I am a very persistent person and will not stop opposing Soros and the Western intelligence services that are destroying us," Alexander Vulin told Izvestia.
At the end of November 2024, Serbian Assembly (parliament) deputies from the pro-government Movement of Socialists Djordje Komlenski and Bojan Torbica introduced a draft law on foreign agents. Despite the fact that Vulin himself is the deputy prime minister of the government, the Socialist Movement has only two representatives in the Assembly. Therefore, passage of the law would require the support of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party.
However, in December 2024, President Aleksandar Vucic said that his party would not support the draft law on foreign agents. Although the Serbian leader admitted that many deputies of the ruling political force's faction were sympathetic to the initiative and found many good elements in it. But the proposed regulation of foreign agents has caused discontent in the West. Brussels said it was "concerned about the draft law, as it is not compatible with the EU's fundamental values." Therefore, it is very likely that the initiative will suffer the same fate again, the law will be rejected even amid protests, RIAC program manager Milan Lazovic told Izvestia.
- President Vucic does not want to aggravate relations with the West once again, and the adoption of such a law would definitely increase pressure, which may be critical in the conditions of ongoing political instability in the country," the expert said.
Who in Serbia can fall under the law on foreign influence?
According to the draft law, the foreign agents are proposed to include NPOs and other associations that are "financed by foreign entities or assisted by such entities" and "engaged in politics or other political activities. Foreign agents may be registered in a special register of the Ministry of Justice.
At the same time, foreign agents must accompany each published material with a mention of their status. Violations of the law are punishable by fines ranging from €42 to €17 thousand, criminal penalties and a ban on activities. The proposed bill is modeled after the corresponding US law of 1938.
Against the background of the mass protests that have been going on in Serbia since November last year, the fight against foreign interference has become especially important. Authorities believe the actions are organized from abroad. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic accused the West of trying to stage a "color revolution" in the republic - in this, he said, "billions of euros have been invested." To fight against it, the Serbian president announced the creation of the "Movement for People and Power" at a rally in the city of Jagodina.
The USAID (United States Agency for International Development) was particularly active in Serbia. From 2001 to 2024, Washington invested about $937 million in various projects in the Balkan republic. In particular, USAID was a partner in programs to "strengthen democratic institutions, promote education, health care and environmental protection." With the advent of the Trump administration, all foreign aid was halted for 90 days; now USAID can join the State Department.
- There will be no change in the short term. The money to the protest leaders has been previously allocated and they will continue to do what they have been paid to do. The EU has already pledged to take over the financing of the agent network in Serbia, which USAID has been building for a long time," Alexander Vulin said earlier.
It should be noted that legislative regulation of foreign agents' activities is applied in an increasing number of countries. In addition to Georgia, where the adoption of the relevant law caused mass protests, a similar document was introduced by the Speaker of the Parliament of Montenegro. In September 2023, the government of Republika Srpska (the entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina) proposed a regulation on registration of foreign agents, which was later withdrawn due to criticism from the EU.
Will there be early elections in Serbia?
The current protest wave in Serbia began after the tragedy of November 1, 2024, when a 50-meter high canopy made of concrete, metal and glass collapsed at the Novi Sad train station. Fifteen people died, including three children. This year, the actions turned into a large-scale strike, which resulted in the resignation of Prime Minister Milos Vucevic on January 28. Now he is acting head of the Cabinet, the Serbian parliament has not yet considered the candidacy of a new prime minister.
Against this background, Aleksandar Vucic made concessions to the opposition and officially invited the protesters to start negotiations. He also pardoned 13 participants of the mass protests, against whom the prosecutor's office opened criminal cases for rioting. The construction minister and a number of other officials resigned. Early parliamentary elections have not been ruled out, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Vulin told Izvestia.
- Elections are possible, but I believe they are not necessary. The parliamentary majority is stable and relies on the support of citizens. The opposition will not even participate in the elections, so why should we go to the polls? - he explained.
The opposition has previously resorted to boycotting the elections during the election of parliament in 2020. As a result, the voter turnout was the lowest since 1990 at less than 50%.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic speaks at a rally in support of the Serbian government. 2023
In 2023, Aleksandar Vucic dissolved parliament after another outburst of mass discontent. The trigger then was another tragedy - the mass murder in the Belgrade school named after Vladislav Ribnikar, where ten people were killed. As a result of the vote, Vucic's party strengthened its position, but the protests could not be pacified - in December 2023, opposition supporters tried to seize the Belgrade City Hall, and in the summer of 2024, there were riots over the permission to mine lithium for a foreign company.
Therefore, it is not certain that early parliamentary elections will be able to ease the tension in society. The probability of their holding is less than 50%, believes Oleg Bondarenko, editor-in-chief and founder of the Balkanist.ru project.
- Now the ruling party's rating is "floating", it is not as high as it was one or two years ago. This is one of the reasons why the authorities may not want to rush into new elections," he told Izvestia.
That said, there will be no early voting. Vucic is already in his last term (he was elected in 2017 and 2022), and new presidential elections mean his resignation. It is worth noting that in January, the Serbian leader declared his readiness to hold a referendum in the republic on confidence in the head of state. It is possible that this could be a substitute for elections, summarized Oleg Bondarenko.
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