Thank you all, all JCPOA: US ignores Iran nuclear deal
The participants in the Iran nuclear deal are waiting for the US administration to formulate its position on it. So far, no signals have been received from Washington regarding a possible resumption of the agreement, Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna, told Izvestia. Earlier, the US administration claimed that it intends to resume its policy of "maximum pressure" on Tehran. The prospects for possible negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program - in the material of "Izvestia".
What is the state of the Iranian nuclear deal?
At the moment, no signals regarding the resumption of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) have been received from the United States, the participants in the Iran nuclear deal are waiting for Donald Trump's administration to formulate its position, Mikhail Ulyanov told Izvestia.
- Unfortunately, negotiations on the restoration of the JCPOA were blocked back in 2022 by the Western parties to the nuclear deal - the United States, Britain, Germany and France. And this happened at a time when the draft decision was almost completely ready. Only a few provisions remained to be agreed upon. Since then, Russia, China and Iran have repeatedly declared their readiness to return to the negotiating table and finalize the agreement. This has not found any response from Western partners," the Russian Ambassador to International Organizations in Vienna said.
The diplomat noted that Western countries preferred "megaphone diplomacy", making harsh anti-Iranian statements in the IAEA Board of Governors. They had several times introduced draft resolutions condemning Tehran. It looked very cynical, since almost all the concerns presented by Western countries would have been easily addressed if the negotiation process to restore the nuclear deal had been completed.
- Now everyone is waiting for the new U.S. administration to formulate its position on the Iranian nuclear program and possible diplomatic efforts in this direction. As of today, there is no clarity on this issue," Mikhail Ulyanov summarized.
Against the backdrop of the US silence, negotiations between representatives of Iran and the "Euro-troika" countries (France, Great Britain and Germany) have been underway in Geneva since November 2024. The third round of dialog was held in January, the parties came to the conclusion that negotiations on the nuclear deal should be resumed. Previously, representatives of Tehran and the EU discussed the issue in September 2024, at the 79th session of the UN General Assembly. In November, the IAEA also expressed readiness to resume the deal: the head of the organization, Rafael Grossi, said that there is a possibility of reaching a lasting nuclear agreement.
Iran's leadership changed significantly after the death of President Ibrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May 2024. Early elections were won by Massoud Pezeshkian, who is considered a moderate politician. In December 2024, Iranian Vice President and one of the main nuclear negotiators with the West, Javad Zarif, said that Tehran was ready for dialog with the Donald Trump administration. The diplomat emphasized: his country has not succumbed to sanctions pressure, which lasted more than 20 years, and is ready for an equal dialogue.
Recall that negotiations on Iran's nuclear program have been going on since the 2000s. In 2015, Iran, Russia, Britain, the United Kingdom, the United States, China, France and Germany signed an action plan, which became known as the JCPOA or the Iran nuclear deal. The document envisioned the lifting of sanctions against Tehran in exchange for limiting the development of its nuclear program. However, in 2018, the Donald Trump administration withdrew from the agreement and adopted a policy of "maximum pressure" - imposed restrictions against Iran's oil exports, currency and government debt. Despite the fact that the other parties to the deal did not leave it, Tehran abandoned part of its obligations under the JCPOA and began enriching uranium above the 3.67% level stipulated in it.
Whether the JCPOA will be reinstated
After Joe Biden's administration took office in 2021, Washington decided to consider a return to the JCPOA. To this end, talks began in Vienna to restore the deal. They ended inconclusively due to opposing positions. The US insisted on the phased lifting of sanctions in exchange for Iran's full return to its commitments, Tehran demanded that all restrictions imposed by the Trump administration be lifted first.
Now the Republican has returned to the White House. He said Iran "can't have nuclear weapons" because that would lead to an arms race in the Middle East and "then everything would turn into a catastrophe." The new US Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that Washington is open to any agreement with Iran. At the same time, according to US publications, the main negotiator with the Islamic Republic may become the US president's special representative for the Middle East, Steven Whitkoff, whose contribution to the conclusion of a deal on the Gaza Strip was highly appreciated by Israeli and Qatari diplomats.
During his first term, Donald Trump has maintained a tough policy toward Iran and sought its complete international isolation. If Tehran does not agree to Washington's terms, this policy could continue. However, the US will act on the Iranian direction indirectly. In particular, Washington may torpedo the dialog between Iran and Saudi Arabia by increasing tensions in the Persian Gulf, including through various kinds of military provocations, Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor at the Department of Political Theory at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, told Izvestia.
In addition, the White House will try to limit Iranian influence in Iraq through greater involvement of Turkey and the Arabian monarchies. This could help fuel the problems of the Kurdish minority in Iran itself, which mostly lives on the border with Iraq, Ivan Loshkarev said.
If the sides make concessions and reach an agreement on Tehran's nuclear program, the Islamic Republic's economy could begin to boom, as it did after UN sanctions were lifted in 2015. But Tehran's strengthening position in the Middle East does not suit the US, Israel and the Arab monarchies, Rajab Safarov, head of the Center for the Study of Contemporary Iran, tells Izvestia.
- For the sake of international and domestic public opinion, the parties are capable of restoring the negotiation process, but this may not have any prospects of achieving a result," the expert said.
Therefore, Western countries and Arab states are interested in maintaining the sluggish international sanctions against Iran, limiting its development. The main negotiators will try to maintain the status quo, especially after shocks in the form of worsening conflicts in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon and the change of power in Syria.
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