Long way to go: Russians' borrowing has fallen for the first time in 2.5 years
In December, the total volume of Russians' loans decreased for the first time since May 2022, Izvestiya has found out. This means that citizens repaid more debts than they had accumulated during that month. The size of the population's loans fell by 192 billion rubles, to 36.9 trillion. The record high interest rate of the Bank of Russia and quantitative restrictions on lending to borrowers with a high debt load have finally begun to take effect, experts say. This is a positive trend, because it will help slow down price growth in the country. Whether to expect against the backdrop of such indicators and soon to reduce the Central Bank rate - in the material "Izvestia".
The debts of Russians are decreasing
The total volume of loans to the population in December 2024 decreased by 192 billion to 36.9 trillion rubles, according to the data of the Central Bank. This is the first decrease since May 2022. Then the figure decreased by Br41 billion, while a month earlier - by Br230 billion.
This means that citizens have repaid more debts than they had accumulated this month. The creditworthiness of the population has finally begun to decline, although only slightly, explained Alexei Tarapovsky, founder of Anderida Financial Group.
The Central Bank confirmed to Izvestia that the retail loan portfolio shrank in December. However, only the debt on unsecured loans decreased by 271 billion, the press service of the Bank of Russia added. Mortgages and car loans continued to grow.
The regulator explained: the slowdown in lending is due to tight monetary and macroprudential policy (i.e. high interest rates and, for example, quantitative restrictions on the issuance of unsecured loans to borrowers with a high debt load). And also with the absence of large-scale state support for mortgages after July 2024. Then they canceled the preferential program for new buildings at 8%, which had been in effect since 2020, and tightened the conditions for family mortgages.
The main reason for the decline in the volume of loans to Russians for the first time in 2.5 years is a significant increase in the key rate in late October, up to a record 21%, said Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov. He added: after that, the full cost of a consumer loan in commercial banks rose to an average of 37% per annum.
By the end of the year, the regulator also tightened quantitative restrictions on issuing unsecured loans to already borrowed customers. In Q6 2024, banks were allowed to issue such loans to Russians with a debt load of more than 80% (i.e. those who spend more than 80% of their income on debt repayment). But the share of such loans in the total volume of loans cannot exceed 3%. And cash loans to citizens who spend on debt repayment from 50% to 80% of income, should occupy a share of a maximum of 15%.
Because of this, the number of risky borrowers in new issuances is not growing so fast, explained the chief analyst Sovcombank Anna Zemlyanova. She added: the share of Russians with a high debt load (that is, above 50%) in the total portfolio is still significant, but is gradually declining.
Against the background of such "twists" of the Central Bank loans in the second half of the year began to decline, said the director of the department "Borrow and Save" Sberbank Sergei Shirokov.
- Now we see a decline in the consumer lending market. The market is going exactly where the regulator directs it, - he emphasized.
At the same time, in December the volume of executed loans fell by 10% compared to November. This was the lowest level of lending over the past two years, said Vladimir Chernov.
When the Central Bank will reduce the rate
The decline in the volume of loans to the population may indicate several things, said Tatiana Dvoretskaya, managing director of the department of development and promotion of credit products Renaissance Bank. The first is that people have really started to take fewer loans because they want to reduce debts and take a more responsible approach to finances. The second is the fear of an insufficiently stable economic situation. And the third is a change in financial habits. People see the sense in saving by placing money on high-interest deposits.
- The slowdown in lending in Russia can be considered a positive trend, because against this background inflation is expected to cool down in the country. This is why the Central Bank has been tightening its monetary policy and loan conditions," said Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global.
In his opinion, the trend of slowing down lending will last at least until the second half of 2025. Dmitry Gritskevich, manager of banking and financial market analysis at PSB, agreed: under such conditions, the portfolio growth will amount to about 10% at the end of the year against 11.2% in 2024.
At the same time, the risks of high borrowing still remain, warned Maxim Kolyadov, head of work with individuals of the company "Insurance broker AMsec24". Especially those who already have significant debts. If income levels are not rising and prices are rising, this could lead to problems with servicing loans.
In part, the Central Bank has already achieved the goal of reducing demand for lending, said Alexei Tarapovsky of Anderida Financial Group. However, Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global does not expect the key rate to be lowered soon. According to him, against the backdrop of pressure from business and deputies, if inflation slows down, the Central Bank may start the cycle of reducing the key rate not earlier than in the second half of 2025.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of price growth at the end of 2024 amounted to 14%, and at the beginning of this year it dropped to 12-13%, said Rodion Latypov, Chief Economist of VTB Group. However, there is still a long way to go to the target level of 4%. The Central Bank will probably keep the rate at 21% for the time being, the expert expects.
Anna Zemlyanova from Sovcombank said that we should not expect serious movements before spring. According to her, the Bank of Russia may even leave the key rate at the current level for the whole year.
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