Seeds of the year: how abnormally warm winter will affect the harvest in 2025

Abnormally warm January and the subsequent return of frosts, reduction of sown areas, lack of funds of agrarians for the renewal of agricultural machinery - all this may lead to a decrease in the harvest in 2025. This, in turn, will affect the growth of inflation. It will be a challenge for the Central Bank and the government to keep it at the level of 4.5-5%, according to RANGHIGS. At the same time, experts do not expect problems with food security in Russia, as there will be no shortage of products.

What the harvest will depend on

Warm winter and unstable spring, as well as the reduction of sown areas and the lack of funds for farmers to update agricultural equipment may lead to a decrease in the harvest. This was stated by experts at a roundtable discussion in the IIC "Izvestia": "Dangerous warming: how will the weather affect the harvest?".

- Despite the achievements of science and technology, climate plays an important role for the harvest. Last year was particularly telling, when there was drought in one place and flooding in another. Therefore, last year's harvest was not as high as expected," said Anatoly Tikhonov, director of the International Center for Agribusiness and Food Security at the Graduate School of Corporate Governance of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

According to him, this year, too, there are worrying signals. Since, for example, in the south of Russia winter crops were planted in dry ground due to lack of precipitation and warm weather.

- Now the assessments are different. The Ministry of Agriculture states that more than half of winter crops feel well. Industry unions believe that more than 30% of winter crops are in a depressed state and this raises concerns," said the expert.

He also noted that one of the risks is the return of frosts - plants may not survive them, and therefore not give a high yield. At the same time, Anatoly Tikhonov noted that this threat will not affect all regions of Russia, so in general will not affect the food security of the country.

- Our country is so unique that there are no fears and our population does not need to be afraid of anything. Even if we have a bad situation in some region, other regions will help," he added.

This opinion is shared by Elena Tyurina, Director of the Analytical Department of the Russian Grain Union.

- Today the condition of winter crops is good for the most part. 82% of crops can give a good harvest. But for us, of course, it is important whether there will be return frosts in February and March. Because if they will be, and we have insufficient moisture in the soil, we can get a serious loss of yield. Moreover, this applies to the main growing regions - the south of Russia," she said.

According to her, last year some regions lost 40% of the harvest because of this.

In addition to the weather, other factors affect the harvest. Thus, there is an increase in the cost of seeds, fertilizers and other components of grain cultivation in the country, the expert noted. In addition, she said, there is a low level of profitability of production, lack of funds for the renewal of agricultural machinery. This is especially true for small farms. At present, there is a tendency to increase cultivation of marginal crops - rapeseed, peas, lentils, she added.

- The sowing area today is less than last year's level by about 400 thousand hectares. Last year there were about 18.2 million hectares sown for winter crops. This year it will be about 17.5-17.7 million hectares. What will be further on the area of harvesting, will be seen by the situation in February-March, - explained Elena Tyurina.

Igor Mukhanin, President of the Association of Russian Horticulturists, in turn, drew attention to the fact that in recent years this is the first winter when there is no snow on the fields.

- Our main crop is apple trees. It is still in deep rest and this temperature is not critical for it. The situation is dangerous for berry crops: strawberries and strawberries without snow," he explained.

According to him, gardeners are waiting for spring and do not want a repeat of last year, when there were three waves of frosts on flowering.

Do we expect food inflation to rise in 2025?

Warm weather in Russia is associated with the changed location of the high-altitude frontal zone. This was told by Alexander Shuvalov, head of the Meteo forecasting center.

- It looks like a more northern than usual position of the high-altitude frontal zone, that is, the zone through which Atlantic cyclones move. Therefore, most of the European territory of our country appears in the warm sectors of these cyclones. Since the stable situation goes from month to month, the heat accumulates and pours out in a huge amount of simply record warming," he said.

The expert noted that for the first time in the entire period of meteorological observations in such cities as Kursk, Orel, Bryansk, the average monthly temperature above zero was recorded.

- In February there will be not just frosts, but frosts. I have not used the adjective "strong" yet, but there will definitely be frosts, winter will still return," he predicts.

According to him, a gradual decrease in temperature is expected in the middle zone of Russia, more abruptly, but not to the lowest values. In the south and southwest of the Central Federal District, the temperature drop will be less noticeable. In Bryansk, Kaluga, Kursk, Orel, Belgorod, up to -8 ... -10℃ is forecast. In the south: -5 ... -7℃. However, the expert noted that this is a tolerable temperature for winter crops.

The meteorologist also explained that the determining influence on the gross grain harvest is usually caused by summer droughts and rainfall deficit, which cover, first of all, the most productive black earth areas of our country - the south of European territory and the central part of Russia.

Nevertheless, according to Anatoly Tikhonov of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, there are still risks for inflation growth in Russia. He believes that this year it will be difficult for the Central Bank, as well as the government, to meet the target of 4.5-5%. At the same time, if the harvest is good, inflation will be within 8%, the expert believes.