The ferment of protest: how the political crisis in Serbia will end

Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevic announced his decision to leave office amid large-scale protests in the country. After the tragedy in Novi Sad, where a concrete canopy collapsed on people at the train station, rallies began in Serbia, demanding to punish those responsible, and in January 2025 they turned into a strike. The country's authorities consider the protests an attempt of "color revolution" and create a new political movement to fight it. At the same time, Aleksandar Vucic arranged a serious rotation in the government, partially meeting the needs of the discontented. However, the resignations in government circles will not lead to an end to the protests, analysts say. Izvestia reports on the new round of the political crisis in Serbia.

Why protests started in Serbia

Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevic resigned amid protests in the country, along with him the mayor of Novi Sad Milan Djuric will leave his post. Vucevic said that thus fulfills the demands of the protesters, and the ruling "Serbian Progressive Party" shows an example of political responsibility.

Recall that on November 1 at the Novi Sad train station collapsed 50-meter canopy of concrete, metal and glass. Fifteen people died, including three children, all of them Serbian citizens, except one - a citizen of Northern Macedonia. After that, Serbian students and the opposition launched protests in Novi Sad, Belgrade, Kragujevac and other cities. The main demand of the protesters is the release of all documents related to the Novi Sad train station, the resignation and punishment of officials responsible for the security of the facility, as well as the release of all detained demonstrators.

At the same time, the protest movement is getting stronger and stronger: On January 24, the demonstrations turned into a large-scale strike. On January 27, the protesters blocked Autokomanda, the largest traffic junction in the Serbian capital Belgrade. The number of participants of the action in front of the building of Radio and Television of Serbia at the end of last week, according to the Belgrade agency for monitoring of rallies, exceeded 55 thousand, while the authorities reported about 10-15 thousand participants.

According to Stevan Gajic, a researcher at the Institute of European Studies (Belgrade), the protests in Serbia differ from the recent rallies in Slovakia, where the opposition is trying to declare a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Robert Fitzo. In Serbia, there are almost no people with EU and Ukrainian flags among the protesters, while there are many patriotic strikers with Russian and Serbian symbols, he told Izvestia.

At the same time, the protests were supported by many opinion leaders, including world tennis star Novak Djokovic. The unexpected outburst of discontent occurred because the state structures failed to take the necessary measures in a situation where innocent people died. Therefore, the executive branch has lost the trust of the people, former Serbian parliament member Zoltan Dani told Izvestia.

On the other hand, Serbian authorities believe that the protests are organized from abroad. In particular, deputy head of the Serbian government Aleksandar Vulin said that the rallies are fueled by Belgrade's refusal to join the anti-Russian sanctions. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic accused the West of trying to organize a "color revolution" in the republic - in this, according to him, "billions of euros have been invested." To fight against it, the Serbian president announced the creation of the "Movement for the People and the State" at a rally in the town of Jagodina.

- Absolutely designed from abroad, meanly designed, a blow to education <...> As if some invisible hand created a new incident and created tension in society," said outgoing Prime Minister Vucevic.

The main driving force behind the protests this time was not opposition activists, but students and schoolchildren. However, coordination is usually carried out through non-governmental organizations with close ties to Western intelligence services, said RIAC program manager Milan Lazovic in a conversation with Izvestia.

Will there be early presidential elections in Serbia?

The rallies may get a new impetus thanks to the resignation of the Prime Minister. So far, the main demands of the striking people have not been met, so the protests are unlikely to subside. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said that the government will be renewed by more than half. The authorities may go even further, in which case the post of the head of the government will probably be occupied by a representative of the opposition, or by a person who is connected with the ruling circles, but is more likely to take a pro-Western stance on some serious issues, believes Milan Lazovic.

The current protest wave is not the first for Serbia. President Slobodan Milosevic was forced to resign in 2000 because of the mass riots, called "Bulldozer Revolution". Equally serious protests took place in Serbia after a mass shooting at a school in Belgrade, when ten people were killed. In the summer of 2024, Serbian eco-activists and opposition protested against lithium mining in the Jadar River Valley by Rio Tinto. In fact, no election campaign in the country is without protests.

Earlier, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said that he was ready to organize a referendum on the issue of confidence in him. He has already successfully used this strategy in the past: in December 2023, the country held early parliamentary elections, the purpose of which was to demonstrate to the opposition that the government is legitimate and enjoys broad support in society. And it succeeded: the ruling coalition won a majority. However, even the early elections did not calm the opposition, whose supporters tried to storm the Belgrade City Hall.

However, the protesters have not yet officially demanded Vucic's resignation, so new elections are unlikely.

- I don't think that there will be early presidential elections. Most likely, there will only be a serious reconstruction of the Serbian government," said former parliamentarian Zoltan Dani.

The EU and the US are currently, at least at the official level, on the side of Aleksandar Vucic. In particular, Richard Grenell, the U.S. Special Representative of the President for Special Assignments, said that he does not support "those who undermine the rule of law" and urged the protesters not to resort to violence. Aleksandar Vucic also met with Ursula von der Leyen and other EC members at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

The West and Vucic have had an uneasy relationship. Nevertheless, on the whole, his policy seems to suit both Brussels and Washington so far. First, Serbia is a country with strong pro-Russian sentiments, which is due not only to the fact that Moscow and Belgrade have a history of confronting common enemies (the Ottoman Empire, Germany and its allies during World War II), but also to the cultural proximity of Russians and Serbs (the majority of people in both countries are Orthodox Christians, and the Cyrillic alphabet is used). Vucic, while maintaining contacts with Moscow, is still committed to European integration and generally builds an active dialog with Western countries. In addition, the Serbian president does not refuse contacts with representatives of self-proclaimed Kosovo, which is demanded, first of all, by the EU. That is, the West realizes that instead of the current leader, a person could come to power who would build a different policy. And in these conditions, betting on undermining Vucic's position is a very unpredictable endeavor.

Moscow believes that the West is developing plans to destabilize the internal situation in Serbia, using the mechanisms of inspired "color revolutions" and putting pressure on the country's legitimate authorities, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said earlier. State Duma deputy Alena Arshinova told Izvestia that the countries under attack now are those with leaders inconvenient to the West: the already mentioned Vucic and Fitzo, as well as Hungarian head of government Viktor Orban or even his Montenegrin counterpart Milojko Spajic. "What is happening in Europe clearly demonstrates the devaluation of the principles of democracy. We see how unwanted politicians are removed from power by illegal methods. The EU is plunging into economic chaos and political degradation," she summarized.