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- The rise of AI falls: the collapse of US tech giants' stocks will negatively impact Trump's project
The rise of AI falls: the collapse of US tech giants' stocks will negatively impact Trump's project
The launch of Chinese startup DeepSeek has crashed the shares of the largest IT companies in the United States and jeopardized the further effectiveness of the Stargate company, the creation of which was announced by Donald Trump. Cumulatively, securities collapsed for over $1 trillion, an unprecedented fall for the industry. What consequences await the U.S. market in the future and whether the rift in Stargate will lead to the departure of Microsoft - in the material "Izvestia".
Why the U.S. stock market fell
After the Chinese startup DeepSeek entered the market, quotes of technology companies on the U.S. stock market collapsed. Shares of graphics processor manufacturer Nvidia plummeted the most - by 17%, because of which the company lost almost $600 billion of market capitalization for the day. This is an anti-record in the history of world finance, said Freedom Finance Global analyst Egor Tolmachev. In addition, the securities of one of the largest IT-companies in the world Oracle Corp. and Taiwanese TSMC (the leading manufacturer of microchips) collapsed by 13%.
Shares of American companies - software developers and equipment for data centers (where data is stored and processed for various purposes) - also fell in price massively. Shares of Arista Networks lost 22%, Broadcom - 17.4%, and Micron Technology - 11%. In addition, the quotations of Nebius N.V. - this is part of the former company Yandex N.V.), which continued to operate in the Netherlands after the split with the Russian PJSC "Yandex" collapsed by a third.
- The U.S. stock market crash on Jan. 27 was triggered by investor concerns about DeepSeek's new Chinese AI. Its launch has increased the perception of competition from the PRC, which could undermine the position of US companies in the field of artificial intelligence," said Kirill Klimentyev, analyst at Digital Broker.
DeepSeek-R1 neural network is at least comparable to the best models in the world in terms of the quality of analysis, but it is ten times cheaper, said Egor Tolmachev. The Chinese needed 14 times less money ($5.5 million) and 20-30 times less computing power to develop it than to launch ChatGPT: it took only 60 days to train the neural network, and it was conducted under conditions of restrictions on the supply of AI chips to China.
DeepSeek is focused on Asian markets, it is optimized for Chinese infrastructure and supported by the Chinese government, which gives it a great advantage.
At the same time, DeepSeek is open source, which means the neural network can be adapted to different business tasks, which makes it different from ChatGPT. The Chinese model does not involve subscriptions or one-time purchases - the application will be free for the bulk of users.
- The threat to the American bigtech is the possible loss of positions in the fast-growing Asian market and the reduction of their global influence," said Kirill Klimentiev.
The launch of DeepSeek means that the cost of processing queries for language models could drop dramatically, allowing companies to use AI more actively in business, Egor Tolmachev added. To hold its ground, OpenAI will have to cut prices on its AI models, which will reduce the company's revenue. The cost of training new neural networks will also fall, which will reduce demand for data centers.
Shares of bigtechs will correct slightly after the fall, but are likely to freeze at a reduced level, believes analyst of FG Finam Leonid Delitsyn. Much will depend on the reporting of these companies. As for the securities of companies that work with semiconductors and equipment for data centers, the rollback will definitely happen, Nvidia and Oracle will suffer the most, believe in Freedom Finance Global.
However, the demand for computing infrastructure is growing worldwide, so making AI cheaper will make it more affordable for companies, said Egor Tolmachev. In the long run, the whole economy should benefit from it.
Internal contradictions make Stargate vulnerable
The collapse of quotations occurred against the background of growing tension in the team of Stargate, for which has already attracted investments worth $100 billion. This may become a key challenge for Donald Trump's policy in the field of artificial intelligence, believes the head of research in the field of AI directorate of design and development of the digital platform of the University 2035 Yaroslav Seliverstov.
The conflict between Sam Altman of OpenAI and Mustafa Suleiman of Microsoft AI continues to gain momentum. Entrepreneur Marc Benioff previously revealed that as recently as last year, the two executives had quarreled during common appearances on panels at the Davos Business Forum, and now their animosity has significantly escalated.
According to Yaroslav Seliverstov, in the worst case scenario, the disagreement could lead to Microsoft's complete abandonment of the Stargate project, which would entail the loss of huge investments and time. And the decision to hire Altman's main critic, Mustafa Suleiman, was not accidental, the expert believes.
- OpenAI aims to become an independent technological leader in its field and create competition to Microsoft in the future. And Microsoft, in turn, has been investing in OpenAI since 2019 and perceives it largely as its "daughter". The conflict of interest was inevitable," said Igor Bederov, head of information and analytical research at T. Hunter Igor Bederov.
The creation of the Stargate project was announced by US President Donald Trump on January 21, 2025. The announcement took place in the presence of all the key partners: Sam Altman from OpenAI, Masayoshi Son from SoftBank and Larry Ellison from Oracle. But Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella was absent, and despite investing nearly $14 billion in OpenAI and using AI models for its cloud services, his company is only mentioned as a technology partner.
- Internal disagreements can make it difficult to work together. Any delays or conflicts within the project could lead to falling behind China with its more market-oriented AI models," Igor Bederov concluded.
Microsoft's departure from Stargate will be beneficial for OpenAI, because it will be easier for them to realize their own interests within the project. It will also lead to a decrease in the potential capabilities of Stargate, especially against the background of the success of the DeepSeek neural network, which bypasses all existing large language models, says Anton Averyanov, CEO of ST IT Group, an expert of the TechNet NTI market.
- The development of the chatbot cost the Chinese company about $5.5 million, that is, many times cheaper than what the creators of ChatGPT spent. For the American bigtech, these figures have become an ice shower," noted Sergey Pomortsev, a techno-expert.
Thescale of Stargate makes the company vulnerable to both external and internal disagreements, says Vladimir Zykov, director of the Association of Professional Users of Social Networks and Messengers. According to him, the consequences of the conflict between OpenAI and Microsoft could be devastating.
- Microsoft is not only a major investor in OpenAI, but also a provider of the Azure cloud infrastructure, on which many of OpenAI's AI models are based. And if we have to change partners, such a move will involve a lot of risks," he said.
Another risk factor, the expert named Ilon Musk, whose statements about SoftBank pointed to problems hidden from the public. On social network X, the businessman said that "SoftBank has much less than $10 billion." This has created a risk that at some point Trump will have to choose between Musk as head of the US government's efficiency structure and the "hands-off" Stargate Corporation.
- The factor of internal contradictions at Stargate could paralyze development, especially if conflicts between key figures are not resolved. Ilon Musk's epathetic behavior and its impact on the company's public image may scare away investors and partners, which increases the risks to Stargate's long-term success," said Maria Kozlova, head of the Open Solutions press service.
According to her, the likelihood of Microsoft withdrawing from the project looks quite real now, given the growing friction with OpenAI and the corporation's desire to retain control over its own AI research. As soon as Microsoft feels that further participation in Stargate no longer brings strategic benefits or creates reputational risks, it will prefer to focus on developing its own technologies, she summarized.
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