The second one left: why South Korea's parliament suspended the acting president
South Korea's National Assembly has announced the impeachment of acting Prime Minister Han Dok-soo. The prime minister was accused of helping ousted President Yoon Seok-yol by refusing to appoint new Constitutional Court judges. The impeachment of the prime minister may lead to a loss of control over the country's economy, experts interviewed by Izvestia said. At the same time, Seoul's foreign policy will not change until the opposition comes to power.
What happened in South Korea
South Korea's National Assembly voted to impeach Prime Minister and acting President Han Dok-soo. The ouster was supported by 192 lawmakers, all from the opposition United Democratic Party and five other political forces. South Korea's constitution requires a two-thirds vote (200 lawmakers) to impeach a president, but a simple majority (151 votes) is enough to remove high-ranking officials, including the prime minister.
Before the vote, National Assembly Speaker U Won-sik said a simple majority was enough to remove the acting president. The country's ruling Civic Force Party disagreed with this decision and refused to vote in favor of impeaching Han Dok-soo. At the same time, the suspended prime minister himself said after the vote that he respected the parliament's decision and would suspend his duties in accordance with the law.
Lawmakers from South Korea's ruling People's Power Party protest against National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-sik during an impeachment vote
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok will now perform the duties of the president and prime minister. Earlier, he asked parliament not to suspend the head of government, Han Dok-soo. The politician called on all parties to focus solely on the economic stability of the country and public welfare.
Recall that the political crisis in South Korea sharply escalated on December 3 after the decision of President Yun Seok-yol to impose martial law and ban any political activity. He explained his move by the actions of "unprincipled pro-North Korean anti-state forces," meaning the opposition, which launched the process of removing a number of officials and threatened to impeach Yun Seok-yol himself because of corruption scandals involving, among others, his wife.
Protesters participate in a rally in front of the National Assembly building in Seoul calling for the impeachment of South Korean President Yun Seok-yol, who has declared martial law
Nevertheless, the majority of South Korea's National Assembly members were able to come together and vote in favor of lifting martial law. The president obeyed their decision and lifted the regime as early as the early morning of December 4. On the same day, the United Democratic Party and five other smaller opposition forces launched impeachment proceedings against the president. On December 14, Yoon Seok-yeol was removed from power, a decision that must now be approved by the Constitutional Court.
How the political crisis is affecting South Korea's economy
The large-scale political crisis is already affecting the South Korean economy: the exchange rate has reached 1480 won per U.S. dollar - a new anti-record for the country after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Moreover, the current drop in the exchange rate has lasted for 11 consecutive days.
However, the current problems in the economy are caused not only by the impeachment, but also by objective factors, Kim Yong Un, a leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies of IKSA RAS, told Izvestia.
The country's stock market is also in free fall: the KOSDAQ index has fallen 22% since the beginning of the year, the KOSPI has lost 9%. If the situation does not change, this decline will be the largest since the economic crisis of 2008-2009. GDP growth in Q3 2024 was only 0.1%, up from 1.5% a year earlier. The country is experiencing the highest inflation since the late 1990s - in 2023 it amounted to 3.6%. Against this background, the budget deficit is growing and the level of public debt, which exceeded 50% of GDP.
The political crisis does not give the authorities an opportunity to solve these issues. It was the opposition's resistance during the adoption of the budget that was one of the justifications for the imposition of martial law. Then the United Democratic Party cut funding for the presidential administration, the prosecutor's office and the government's reserve funds.
- The political crisis and the loss of good governance could exacerbate the economic difficulties South Korea is facing," Kim Yong Un said.
How the situation in the Republic of Korea will develop
The opposition decided to impeach the acting president because Han Dok-soo refused to appoint three missing judges to the Constitutional Court. There are now six judges out of nine sitting on the court. They are appointed by the president, with three chosen by him, three more delegated on the recommendation of the chief justice of the Supreme Court, and the remainder proposed by parliament.
The National Assembly, dominated by the United Democratic Party, has proposed three nominees, two of whom are close to the opposition. However, Prime Minister Han Dok Suh delivered a message to the nation on Dec. 26 in which he promised that he would only appoint judges if there was consensus on the issue. The president's Civic Force Party insists that the acting president can only appoint judges after the Constitutional Court rules on the impeachment of President Yoon Seok-yeol.
Acting South Korean President Han Dok-soo delivered a message to the nation
In this way, the prime minister and the ruling party are facilitating the suspended president. Notably, before the imposition of martial law, President Yoon Seok-yeol convened a meeting of the State Council (a body that includes the prime minister and some ministers) to discuss the imposition of martial law. The prime minister was present there and did not object to it, effectively supporting the head of state's decision, Kim Yong Un claims. Now Han Dok-soo, according to the expert, did not replenish the highest judicial body, although it is necessary for the impeachment issue.
- Let's say in two or three months there will be a vote in the Constitutional Court and suddenly on that day one of the six members of the court falls ill and does not participate in the vote. That's it, no decision is made. Then President Yoon Seok-yeol returns to power," Kim Yong Un explained.
However, even then, the political crisis is not over. If Yun Seok-yol returns to the presidency, the opposition will restart the impeachment process, said Konstantin Asmolov, a leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies at IKSA RAS.
- The Democrats, who are openly clamoring for power, are simply planning to use their advantage in parliament by methodically impeaching anyone who refuses to act on their terms. At first glance, we seem to see democracy resisting attempts to impose martial law, while at second glance it is obvious that the sides are, to put it mildly, worthy of each other," Asmolov said.
Speaker of the National Assembly bangs his gavel after announcing results on the day of the impeachment vote
The expert noted that the South Korean political system was unprepared for the fact that the party with a majority in parliament starts total boycott of the executive branch's actions. At the same time, internal instability affects Seoul's relations with other countries in the region.
How relations with the Russian Federation, DPRK, China and the United States will change
The impeachment of the head of state and prime minister has led to the stoppage of many foreign policy projects. The continuation of this trend will raise even Seoul's allies the question of who to negotiate with. However, the alliance with the United States will remain under any circumstances, as Washington provides the Republic of Korea with not only military but also economic support, Kim Yong Un noted.
- The Americans allow South Korea to have access to its own market, which is closed to many other companies and countries. First of all, it concerns electronics," the expert said.
At the same time, the policy towards Russia and China will not change while the Constitutional Court is considering the legality of Yun Seok-yeol's impeachment. In case of his final dismissal, early presidential elections will be held in South Korea within 60 days. Opinion polls favor opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, who was Yoon Seok-yeol's rival in the 2022 election. He advocates normalizing relations and expanding trade and economic ties with China and Russia, Kim Yong Un said.
South Korea's main opposition Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung
Pyongyang called the events in South Korea "shocking," and called President Yun Seok-yol's actions the use of tools of "fascist dictatorship" against his own people. However, the DPRK is unlikely to try to take advantage of the political crisis in South Korea, Anna Polenova, a Korean scholar and senior lecturer at the Oriental Department of the State Academy of Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.
- The rather restrained reaction to the recent events in Seoul, by North Korean standards, once again emphasized the changes that have taken place in Pyongyang's policy in the inter-Korean direction: South Korea is no longer of significant interest to the DPRK," Anna Polenova said.
Although Pyongyang definitely takes into account the situation in its southern neighbors, its plans are much more influenced by the position of Moscow, Beijing, and Washington, she concluded.
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