Tile for tile: developers want to compensate for loan costs
Developers may receive compensation for loan costs; the Ministry of Construction is preparing a corresponding measure to support the construction industry, Izvestia has learned. It will affect part of the objects launched before 2024, and will apply to the projects of 2025 and 2026. For these purposes it is proposed to allocate 29.6 billion rubles, because of high credit rates, it will be enough for only 8 million square meters. m. However, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economic Development do not support the initiative. The ministry did not approve of the previous measure, which concerned a moratorium on bankruptcy of developers. Representatives of the industry say that today 97.5% of projects already depend on bank financing and the state assistance is necessary. Izvestia looked into what it will be in the end.
Why the construction industry needs support
Due to the high key rate for real estate developers may introduce compensation for the cost of loans, which have become very expensive for them. As "Izvestia" found out, such a measure is contained in the finalized plan of the Ministry of Construction to support the construction industry, which was sent by the Ministry to the government office on December 23.
According to the document, we are talking about the appearance in the Russian Federation of a program to reimburse part of the costs of loans received by systemically important developers. It is planned that it will subsidize the construction of about 8 million square meters, and its implementation will require 29.6 billion rubles.
"Under the program will fall objects with a planned date of commissioning in 2026 and in subsequent years. Thus, its perimeter will include a number of long-term projects launched from the fourth quarter of 2024, and all projects of 2025 launch year," the document says.
The program will be "switched off" when the key rate of the Central Bank decreases, it is specified in the proposals of the Ministry of Construction.
- A similar mechanism operated in 2022 as part of one of the measures to support the construction industry. Then the reimbursement of part of the costs of loans for construction companies allowed to support the timely commissioning of about 25 million square meters of housing, which means that citizens received their keys on time, - confirmed "Izvestia" the elaboration of the initiative in the press service of the Ministry of Construction.
For the first time the program of reimbursement to credit institutions for lost income on loans in the field of housing construction began to operate in 2020 during the pandemic and lasted until December 31, 2023. Then more than 12 billion rubles were allocated from the federal budget for these purposes. According to the decree of the Cabinet of Ministers, the mechanism of state support implied the readiness of banks to provide loans to developers at a rate not exceeding 15% per annum. In this case, a subsidy covering 7.5% of the interest rate was allocated to the bank to compensate for lost income.
How the mechanism will work this time, the Ministry of Construction "Izvestia" did not specify. At the same time, they noted that they are currently analyzing various scenarios for the development of the industry and working out actual support measures to improve the housing conditions of citizens and maintain the sustainability of developers.
- Today, among the tasks of the Ministry of Construction is the fulfillment of target indicators and national development goals of the Russian Federation, defined by the President, among which are the increase in housing provision of citizens, renovation of the housing stock. At present, the elaboration of measures to support the industry is carried out taking into account the successful experience in the implementation of earlier measures, which allowed to maintain the pace of housing construction, improvement of housing conditions of citizens, as well as the sustainability of the construction sector of the economy, - emphasized the Ministry.
At the same time, as "Izvestia" found out, initially the Ministry of Construction proposed to allocate not 29.6 billion rubles, but 54 billion rubles for compensation of loans. However, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economic Development did not support the measure.
"Granting such an advantage to the housing construction industry does not have sufficient grounds. Especially in conditions when the Bank of Russia is making efforts to normalize the growth of lending and money supply. In addition, the proposed measures aimed at stimulating the implementation of housing construction projects do not take into account the volume of demand that may be available on the market in the near term," the Central Bank's review, which Izvestia has, reads.
The Ministry of Economic Development, in turn, noted that the measure provides for financing from the federal budget, but the source of financing, as well as the calculation of the effect, is missing. There is also no assessment of the financial condition of real estate developers. There is also no information on the mechanism for selecting specific projects, according to the Ministry's response, which Izvestiya has.
At the same time, the Ministry of Construction objected to this by saying that one of the key negative factors affecting the housing construction industry is the growth of the Central Bank's key rate and the possibility of its increase to 22-25% in 2025 under the risk scenario.
"Currently, 97.5% of construction projects are fully dependent on bank financing. The cost of servicing loans at a rate of 21%, compared to the rate of 8.5% in August 2023, has already increased by 355 billion rubles. According to the assessment of "Dom.RF", in the risk zone are projects with a planned commissioning date in 2026 and subsequent years - 47% of the volume of housing under construction", - noted in the Ministry of Construction.
"Izvestia" sent requests to the Central Bank, the Ministry of Economic Development to comment on their position. The Ministry of Finance and the government press service recommended Izvestia to contact the Ministry of Construction.
Earlier, the Ministry of Construction proposed to introduce a moratorium on developers' bankruptcy as another measure. However, the Ministry of Economic Development did not support this initiative either, stating that it is an extraordinary mechanism for responding to unusual circumstances, not a rehabilitation procedure.
Why the key rate increase is dangerous for developers
If this is the same program that operated during the pandemic, it is a good idea that can really support the market, Sergei Lobzhanidze, director of the bnMAP.pro service for monitoring and analysis of the new buildings market, told Izvestia.
- In contrast to the preferential mortgage, which was generally available, this measure can really support developers, save them from some serious difficulties associated with the high cost of project financing, it may allow companies to continue to bring projects to the market. There are also advantages for banks - with the subsidized rate there are fewer risks of poor-quality lending," the expert explained to Izvestia.
According to him, the big plus of this program is that the assistance is provided directly to the developer and is aimed at supporting construction. Sergey Lobzhanidze noted that there is less chance that it will lead to overheating of prices for new buildings, as subsidizing the project financing rate does not have a direct impact on demand.
At the same time, according to him, within the framework of the construction industry of the whole country, Br29 billion is a very small figure. Therefore, we want to see the methodology of support to understand how these funds will be distributed, to whom exactly what part of the rate will be subsidized, how long this program will last and other details, he explained.
- Such measures are akin to putting out a forest fire during a drought. It is necessary to put it out, and it is very good when it is put out, but until the weather changes, there will be no real relief. Will these funds be enough to help the industry? How many developers, according to your estimates, would like to and how many will actually be able to take advantage of the program? On the scale of the construction industry, 29.6 billion rubles is a very small amount," agrees Olga Khasanova, General Director of URBAN real estate projects.
According to her, this money will be enough only for targeted subsidies.
- It is designed for 8 million square meters of housing, that is, Br3.7 thousand per square meter. This is about 6-7% of the average cost of construction. To estimate this amount on the scale of an average regional project, a recent example can be given: in October, the Dom.RF bank allocated 19.8 billion rubles for project financing for a couple of Ekaterinburg new buildings with 184 thousand square meters of housing. m of housing," said the business representative.
The list of systemically important companies, prepared by the Ministry of Construction, now includes 43 organizations operating in the housing construction market. These are the largest developers in terms of the number of projects and the area of housing being built. Of course, to strengthen stability in the construction industry, it is advisable to support them, Dmitry Golev, commercial director of Optima Development (developer of the Prime Park residential neighborhood), told Izvestia.
But, on the other hand, according to him, these companies have the maximum reserve of financial strength, have accumulated safety cushions during the period of active sales, have built mutually beneficial relationships with partner banks. Therefore, it is desirable that the assistance to them was targeted, and not become an additional advantage in the competition, he said. It is also no less important today to support relatively small companies, preventing their bankruptcy, and encourage developers who realize the project at their own expense, explained the business representative.
In the coming year, with high key construction industry, as well as other backbone industries of the economy, will not do without government support, said Dmitry Khalin, CEO and managing partner of Intermark City Real Estate.
- It is difficult to say now how many real estate developers will actually use this measure. The list of backbone enterprises of the construction industry has been compiled several times, and at different times it included from 30-40 to 200 companies. But it is obvious that it is necessary to help all developers - not only the largest, but also relatively small ones, provided that they really realize low-margin projects aimed at the development of urban areas, - said the representative of business.
According to him, if the industry does not receive assistance, the citizens, who took mortgages en masse, may not get housing in the near future.
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