No place for devices: demand for smartphones has begun to decline in Russia
Theaverage price of a smartphone in Russia in 2024 increased by about 15% - almost to 25 thousand rubles compared to 2023, experts told "Izvestia". Because of this, the growth of the market of these gadgets in the Russian Federation has actually stopped - such was only in the crisis years 2022 and 2015, they note. Some business representatives even talk about a decrease in sales at the end of the year by about 1.7%. Because of the increase in the key rate, buyers are saving money in deposits, rather than taking them to electronics stores, experts admit. In 2025, the situation is unlikely to change - smartphones will be sold less than in this year, and their prices may rise to an average of 26.5 thousand rubles, they do not exclude.
Why the smartphone market in Russia is losing growth rates
Growth in the Russian smartphone market is over - the result of 2024 is its stagnation, sellers of electronics told "Izvestia". Some of the importers of equipment even talk about the decline in sales. For the segment of gadgets, which, as a rule, steadily increases from year to year, this is not typical - the last time a decline in sales was recorded in 2022.
One of the reasons was the rise in prices for gadgets. According to the calculations of the leading analyst of Mobile Research Group Eldar Murtazin, in October-December compared to the same period last year, the average price of smartphones increased by about 15% - almost to 25 thousand rubles. And this is not the limit: next year it is likely to reach 26.5 thousand, he predicts.
In 2023, an absolute record was set in Russia - 32 million smartphones were sold. Now there is a reduction in the market, the expert notes.
- Due to the growth of the Central Bank rate, people are bringing money to banks, not to electronics stores, - emphasized Eldar Murtazin.
In the IV quarter of 2024 in physical terms, the market decreased by 20%, in monetary terms - by 10% compared to the same period of 2023, he says. December of this year turned out to be the most unsuccessful for retailers for the first time in many years. In 2024, 29 million devices will probably be sold in Russia, and in 2025, under the most optimistic scenario, sales will amount to 28.5 million units, the expert believes.
According to the results of 11 months of 2024 (from January 1 to December 8) "Marvel Distribution" recorded smartphone sales at the level of 27.5 million devices. For the same period in 2023, 28 million devices were sold, the company representative noted. Thus, sales in physical terms decreased by 1.7% in units, but increased by 8.9% in money, he points out.
- The year 2022 was a crisis year for the market, but a year later this decline was overridden by explosive demand, which allowed to return sales figures to the usual level. In 2024, the growth in monetary terms in addition to inflation is due to the fact that consumers are no longer buying their first smartphones, but the second or third, so they choose not the most budget models, but technologically equipped and more expensive, - says the organization. - According to our forecasts, sales will remain at the level of this year, or with a slight decrease - no more than 3-5%.
According to the representative of the company, in 2025, possible currency fluctuations and the key rate may have a negative impact on the volume of shipments and the cost of smartphones.
- According to our observations, the market growth slowed down in the first half of 2024, while the second half of the year saw a decline. The results of the year will show a small, rather nominal revenue growth and stagnation in sales volumes," Vimpelcom said. - For 11 months, the market showed an increase in revenue by 10%, while the number of sold devices remained at the level of 2023.
Such dynamics is largely due to economic factors affecting inflation, which affects the cost of devices and, accordingly, the revenue, said a representative of the operator. In 2025, several scenarios are considered: from positive with a slight increase in sales to moderate with possible stagnation, and even negative with a decline in sales under the pressure of external economic and geopolitical factors, he said.
- According to our estimates, the smartphone market in Russia in 2024 compared to 2023 did not grow, but also did not decline in the number of devices sold, and in monetary terms increased by about 15-20% due to higher prices following the rise in the key rate of the Central Bank and taking into account inflationary expectations of manufacturers - commented on the situation in "Sviaz.ON".
- According to the results of 11 months of 2024, the number of smartphones sold in Russia in units is the same as last year. However, the overall results of the year will depend on how the market will show itself in December, - noted in "M.Video-Eldorado".
The best-selling smartphones in quantitative terms were Realme Note 50 64GB, Realme Note 50 128GB, Redmi 13c in 256GB version, Redmi 12 256GB and Tecno Spark Go 2024 in 128GB version, the press service of the combined retailer told Izvestia. The top smartphones in monetary terms include five iPhone models: the iPhone 15 Pro Max at 256GB, the base iPhone 15 at 128GB, iPhone 15 Pro at 256GB, iPhone 13 at 128GB and iPhone 15 Pro at 128GB, it added there.
According to Alexei Pogudalov, commercial director of Fridge.ru, the smartphone market in Russia shows mixed dynamics in 2024.
- For ten months there was zero growth in sales in pieces, although at the end of the year a slight decrease of 1-2% is expected. In monetary terms, the growth amounted to 12%, but it is predicted to decline to 10% by the end of the year. This is primarily due to an increase in the average price of smartphones," he pointed out.
What will happen to smartphone prices and demand for smartphones in 2025?
However, not all market participants record a decrease in demand for smartphones.
- The category "Smartphones and accessories" on Wildberries is developing dynamically, this year the growth is recorded both in physical and monetary terms. From January to December 2024 smartphone sales volume grew by almost 40% in terms of sales amount, - noted on the marketplace.
In 2025, as expected in "Svyaz.ON", in the Russian Federation will be sold about 30 million new smartphones, that is, in pieces the sales volume will remain.
- New products at the start of sales will cost more expensive than comparable gadgets of 2024 or 2023, this price increase is already pledged by vendors. And on the current models, prices are likely to remain, - predict in the retail network.
According to a retailer representative, the increase in the cost of new devices will not lead to a drop in demand for them - retailers have a large arsenal of fintech tools to support sales.
- We do not expect strong market fluctuations in 2025. Moderate growth in online segment sales will be achieved mainly due to regional markets. The greatest interest will be held by mid-price models with clear functionality, and gadgets that have made a noise, such as "clamshell", will remain in a narrow niche for techno-geeks, - in turn, says the head of the business unit "Electronics and household appliances" in "Avito" Pavel Komarov.
In the used segment will still be increased interest in flagship models with a good discount from the original price, he predicts. According to him, the market will be additionally supported by trade-in programs and buyback of devices with subsequent resale and warranty, which will make gadgets even more affordable.
According to Alexei Pogudalov from "Fridge.ru", in 2025 a number of factors are expected to affect the smartphone market: the growth of the dollar, high key rate of the Central Bank and, as a consequence, an increase in the cost of smartphones and a decrease in purchasing power. A third of sales in 2024 were made on credit, and the high rate makes this less affordable, he argues. The company predicts a pessimistic scenario: a decrease in sales in units by no more than 10%, while maintaining approximately the current level of sales in monetary terms.
There is another circumstance that led to a decline in interest in smartphones - the rapid growth in their sales last year: then most users replaced the old device with a new one, said Denis Kuskov, general director of TelecomDaily. The factors affecting the market are likely to continue into next year, and hence prices, he believes.
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