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The BRICS expansion, Russia's role in the global energy market, as well as the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president and the upcoming changes in the world were the main topics of discussion at the opening of the Verona Eurasian Economic Forum, which is being held in Ras al-Khaimah (UAE) on December 5-6. European experts, many of whom gathered on this platform, almost directly accused the US of destroying Nord Streams and trying to crush the EU industry. Representatives of India spoke about the need to increase consumption of energy resources, and Russian experts discussed the reduction of the real current role of the dollar in energy trade and the need to create an alternative financial system. The main statements of the first day are in Izvestia.

A reliable platform for dialog

Verona Eurasian Economic Forum this year for the 17th time opened in an unspecific region - in one of the seven United Arab Emirates Ras Al Khaimah. This year, the main theme of the forum was "New Cooperation Architecture for Modern Economy". The organizers were the Italian non-profit association "Let's Cognize Eurasia" in cooperation with the Roscongress Foundation.

Representatives of government and business circles from Europe and Asia: Russia, UAE, Italy and other countries gathered on the shores of the Persian Gulf under the rays of the eastern sun. As last year, the participants of the sessions did not ignore sanctions restrictions, discussed energy security issues, as well as the role of the US, China, Europe and Russia in the new world order and the possibility of some kind of dialog.

Вид на Рас-эль-Хайма

View of Ras Al Khaimah

Photo: Getty Images/Stefan Tomic

As Antonio Fallico, President of the Cognizant Eurasia Association, noted, companies do not like uncertainty, they prefer to operate in clearly defined, predictable and reliable conditions. The current context is far from this - we find ourselves in a world that is mutating at an accelerated pace and sailing into unfamiliar waters, he added. The recent US presidential election is a new factor added to the others. Donald Trump's economic course toward Europe and China could seriously change the world's economic and trade situation, the expert believes.

"It can be assumed that the US will want to close its market to some extent for Asian and Chinese products. Now they are also putting pressure on European partners to push them to close also their market for Chinese goods or to limit trade with China," Antonio Fallico noted.

Today, huge volumes of trade are at stake. If the confrontation intensifies, the American and European markets will be partially closed to inexpensive Asian goods. But goods from the U.S. will be more expensive than goods from China. At the same time, they will most likely be able to take the place of the Chinese in Europe, the expert believes.

Контейнеры
Photo: Global Look Press/Cfoto

"With Russian gas, the Americans have succeeded, although for 50 years such efforts did not lead to success. It turned out to be enough to make a few political decisions in a suitable context, blow up Russian underwater gas pipelines to Europe (then everyone will say they are incompetent to investigate), and the deed is done," he said.

The bottom line is that Europe no longer imports almost any Russian natural gas, buys more expensive American LNG instead, and puts an end to its efficient and competitive industrial model: lower consumption and demand for natural gas, followed by a gradual decline in prices, which reached cosmic heights in the first time after this reversal. Now it is passively watching its own deindustrialization and the transfer of production to the United States as well as to China, Antonio Fallico noted.

BRICS expansion

As for the US, according to Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin , it has lost its leadership in science, industry and finance, and has failed to maintain a just world order. The previously unquestioned influence of the US on political processes in the world is eroding, he added.

"As a result, today, taking advantage of its status as a global hegemon, the US is placing its main bet on creating special conditions for its economy at the expense of other market participants, including its allies. We see the consequences of such a US policy both in Europe and in developing countries," Igor Sechin said.

БРИКС
Photo: IZVESTIYA

The destruction of the unipolar system and the evolution to multipolarity is a process that can be slowed down or contained, but can no longer be stopped. The forum participants named the rapid development of BRICS as a vivid example.

"We are witnessing a rapid growth in the number of countries seeking to join BRICS. The aspiration is so strong that at the moment it is uncontrollable. About 40 countries have publicly expressed interest in joining BRICS, of which 23 have already submitted a formal application," said Antonio Fallico.

For example, the recent accession of the UAE to BRICS has significantly increased the weight of the Emirates in the world, placing it within the framework of an organization designed to play a significant role in international economic development, added Antonio Fallico.

Trade in the face of sanctions

Market participants did not rule out that the new Donald Trump administration will raise duties and tariffs on imported goods, especially from China and Asia in general. This move should strike a blow to the development of the economy of the PRC and other Asian countries and contribute to the reindustrialization of the United States, said Antonio Fallico.

"There is talk of tariffs of 20% and even up to 60% for some Chinese goods. Will the countries concerned wait like lambs to be eaten by the gray wolf? What are they preparing for themselves? What could be the consequences of such decisions on the part of the Americans?" - he wondered.

Белый дом США
Photo: Global Look Press/IMAGO/Offenberg

But Russia, for example, is now finding solutions on how to trade under sanctions. At the same time, an alternative financial system to the Western one is needed, VTB Bank head Andrei Kostin said at the forum.

"Today we are finding solutions on how to trade under sanctions. Trade using other currencies - yuan, rupee or dirham, clearing settlements. <...> But if we talk seriously, in my opinion, it' s time for us to think not only about how to pay for supplies, but how to create the whole infrastructure parallel to the Western structure that exists," he said.

One solution is to develop international trade in national currencies.

"And it's not just about sanctions. Today we have to look for other ways, we find them first of all in the development of bilateral trade on the basis of national currencies. Here, in particular, trade with China, which is our main trading partner, it is about $240 billion a year turnover. 90% of this trade today takes place <...> in ruble and yuan," he emphasized.

Expert estimates

According to Maxim Lazovsky, founder of the Lazovsky Investments project, it can be seen that the US positions are not immovable. They have been lost due to the growing partnership between Russia and friendly countries.

- We have already managed to catch up with America. And in the long term we will be able to overtake it together with the state and within the framework of joint initiatives of investors and the regulator - public-private partnerships," he added.

According to Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the Institute of National Energy, the need to move away from the dollar, which has become a means of sanctions pressure, success through cooperation and meeting the demand of growing consumption centers by maintaining the availability of energy carriers are the main topics that were highlighted by the forum participants.

Денежные купюры доллары
Photo: IZVESTIA/Sergey Lantyukhov

It is also encouraging that there are still experts in the European Union who recognize the obvious with regard to the Nord Streams: the only party that benefited from their destruction is the United States, he added.

- And this is not a trivial matter ("they want to sell gas more expensive"). The point is that control of energy supplies ensures control of industry in particular and the economy in general. And the European economy is the injured party in the current confrontation," he said.

Recognizing the problem is the first step to overcoming it. The only sad thing is that many problems are recognized so far at the expert level, not at the level of politicians, he added.

Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»

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