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- Old things not yet forgotten: the conflict in Syria has escalated for the first time in five years
Old things not yet forgotten: the conflict in Syria has escalated for the first time in five years
The situation in Syria has escalated for the first time in five years. Fighting between government forces and armed rebel formations has been going on for several days now. The militants are being confronted with the support of the Russian Armed Forces. The Kremlin called the large-scale offensive by extremist groups an encroachment on the sovereignty of the North African Republic. At the same time, it is reported about the participation of foreign mercenaries on the side of terrorists. In addition, Moscow drew attention back in October to the fact that Ukraine, in coordination with the United States, is training militants in Syria to operate drones for combat operations against the Russian Armed Forces in that country. Who else may benefit from the escalation - in the material of "Izvestia".
The Armed Forces of Syria and the Russian Federation have entered the battle against terrorists
While the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East have taken over the world agenda, the smoldering conflict in Syria has made itself felt. Large-scale battles between government forces and rebel armed groups have been going on for several days in the north of the country. The extremist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia) and its allied groups attacked government forces in Idlib and reached the most important strategic point - the city of Aleppo with a population of more than 2 million people, which was liberated from illegal armed groups in 2016. The shelling has forced residents of the suburbs to move to the central neighborhoods of the city. There have already been casualties among the civilian population. According to Reuters, clashes in northwestern Syria have killed 27 civilians over the past three days. According to the Syrian agency SANA, militants opened fire on the territory of the state university in the area of the campus - four civilians were killed here. In addition, the terrorists threaten to block the M-5 highway, which connects Aleppo with Damascus, as well as other major cities.
"Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" (HTS) is a coalition of jihadist groups fighting the government of Bashar al-Assad. It was formed in 2017 on the basis of the jihadist organization Jebhat al-Nusra (recognized as terrorist and banned in Russia), which was established since the beginning of the Syrian civil war, in 2012, as a local branch of al-Qaeda (also recognized as terrorist and banned in Russia). The coalition currently denies ties to the latter. De facto, the militant unit no longer exists, although individual Nusra field commanders continue to be members of the HTS and even wear its old symbols.
The government troops entered the battle with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS): over 400 militants were killed in just 24 hours. Al Mayadeen TV channel reported that the Syrian Armed Forces had already launched a counter-offensive in a number of areas near Aleppo. According to media reports, the advance of the gangs to key towns on the strategic Damascus-Aleppo highway has been halted. At least in a statement of the Syrian Defense Ministry said that the army suppressed the terrorist insurgency in the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib, inflicting heavy losses in equipment and personnel on the enemy.
It is important to note that the offensive was the first major clash between the rebels and the government army since March 2020, that is, in almost five years. At that time, the parties, mediated by Turkey and Russia, agreed on a ceasefire.
Moscow condemned the Islamist attack on Damascus-controlled Aleppo. "Of course, this is an encroachment on Syria's sovereignty in this region. And we are in favor of the Syrian authorities bringing order to the area and restoring constitutional order as soon as possible," Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's offensive is creating difficulties for both Syrian government forces and Damascus' official allies Russia and Iran, but the situation is generally under control.
- Attempts by the radicals to expand their offensive and open a "second front" involving other groups are being successfully thwarted by Russian forces. Iranian forces have also declared their readiness to engage in a more comprehensive way in defeating the advancing forces of the KTS," Leonid Tsukanov, an orientalist, told Izvestia.
Who can benefit from the militants' offensive in Syria?
The Syrian National Army (SNA, formerly the Free Syrian Army) and other allegedly pro-Turkish formations also took part in the operation, which the opposition called "Containment of Aggression," although Ankara officially does not recognize any ties with them. The Turkish Defense Ministry said it is still "closely monitoring" what is happening in northern Syria.
The SNA also enjoys the support of the US, which does not recognize the government of Bashar al-Assad. However, Washington is not in the mood to supervise another protracted conflict, and the country is about to change its president and the American political establishment is now busy with the transfer of power.
Ankara is considered a key stakeholder in the escalation, primarily because of the so-called Kurdish issue. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly initiated military operations against the Kurds in Syria, fearing the creation of an independent territorial entity in the border areas. Turkish political scientist Kerim Has is sure that the rebels' offensive could not do without Ankara's military support, including arms supplies. Their advance in northern Syria is in its interests.
- If a concrete result is achieved, Erdogan will have arguments to convince his Western partners, primarily the United States, to launch a new military operation in northern Syria against the Kurds and take control of these territories," the expert explained.
Economic reasons are also possible. Turkey wants to try to seize as much territory as possible in Aleppo province, as it has great views on the city itself - Syria's largest industrial economic center, said Orientalist Andrei Ontikov in a conversation with Izvestia.
If we consider this scenario, it is worth noting that the timing was very opportune. Since the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011, the Shiite movement Hezbollah has openly supported Assad and still considers him an ally. Now, after a bitter standoff with Israel for two months, the group has been severely weakened, which may have prompted Hezbollah to agree to the recent cease-fire agreement. The official cessation of hostilities also comes at a good time: otherwise the rebels, and Turkey as well, could be accused of opening a "second front" against Israel (Ankara supports the Palestinians in the Middle East conflict).
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
However, the rebels could take advantage of the power vacuum without any support from Turkey. The fact is that despite the strained relations between Erdogan and Assad, in the summer of 2024, the media reported on the possible preparation of the first meeting of the leaders since 2011. Russia, the Gulf states and Iraq were considered as mediators. Their talks never took place, but one cannot but note the trend towards normalization of relations between the two countries.
- In light of the prospect of reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus, the militants could already start acting on their own and therefore decided to seize the moment to undermine the process. In case of normalization of relations between Turkey and Syria, all these terrorist groups will be out of business. As a result, they will be either "ground up" or sent to conditional Libya to take part in the fighting there," believes Andrei Ontikov.
Ukrainian interests in Syria
It is quite possible that Ukraine, whose presence on the territory of the republic is obvious, is also involved in the Syrian escalation. In October, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Kiev, in coordination with Washington, is training terrorists from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in new technologies for the production of UAVs in order to fight against the Russian Armed Forces in Syria. Kiev may benefit from distracting the Russian military command in order to weaken Moscow's position in the Ukrainian direction.
- As for the possible participation of Ukrainian GUR specialists in the current events in Syria, the Ukrainian side has previously made hints that it maintains contacts with the "Syrian opposition." Given the fact that the attacking radicals are actively using UAVs of various types (including FPV drones), they have definitely learned a certain lesson from the tactics in the context of special operations," Leonid Tsukanov pointed out.
The Russian Foreign Minister also emphasized that the coalition of Western countries continues to conduct strikes on the territory of the North African Republic. On November 29, the Syrian Army General Command reported that the terrorist squads that have launched large-scale attacks in Idlib and Aleppo provinces include many foreign mercenaries. By the way, the same has been observed since the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict.
The economic background seems to be an unobvious but curious version. Back in the 2000s, there was a project for a Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline to supply fuel from the territorial waters of Qatar and Iran through Turkey in order to supply European consumers as well. One of the branches was to pass through Syria. However, according to the popular version, Assad in 2009 allegedly rejected this idea and preferred in 2012 to sign a memorandum of intentions with Tehran to organize the Syrian transit of Iranian gas to Europe through Iraq, bypassing Turkey.
- The history with the gas pipeline project has been dragging on for years, and official Damascus has repeatedly denied its participation in it. Moreover, Qatar has made a decisive bet on LNG supplies over time - by the end of this decade Doha plans to increase its production by 85%, becoming a global leader. At the same time, the development of "pipeline" supplies is already seen as a "side" project - especially after the Nord Stream incident," Tsukanov said.
Against this background, a Western footprint seems unlikely for economic reasons. Potential beneficiaries of the launch of the Qatar-Turkey flow, which in theory would allow diversifying supplies, will have to wait for their dividends for a very long time.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
