Block freeze: Armenia is not going to leave the CSTO now
Armenia has no plans to fully withdraw from the CSTO at this stage, Movses Harutyunyan, spokesman for the speaker of the country's parliament, told Izvestia. However, Yerevan has no plans to unfreeze its participation in the organization. At the same time, the Russian side assumes that it remains a full-fledged participant of the structure. According to experts, Armenia may return to the organization in the future, as Yerevan has no other guarantors of security.
How the CSTO views Armenia's policy
Armenia's position on participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization remains the same, despite Yerevan's refusal to participate in the CSTO summit in Astana on November 28.
- The Armenian side has frozen its participation in the CSTO, and our position on this issue remains unchanged," Movses Harutyunyan, spokesman for the Speaker of the Armenian Parliament, told Izvestia.
Although Armenia was not present in the Kazakh capital, representatives of the Transcaucasian republic said in advance that they had nothing against the adoption of 14 agreed documents at the Astana summit. Among them is the decision "On Further Strengthening Allied Relations within the Collective Security Treaty Organization".
Russian President Vladimir Putin approaches media representatives after a meeting of the Collective Security Council of the Collective Security Treaty Organization at the Independence Palace in Astana. November 28, 2024.
Vladimir Putin, speaking at the final press conference after the CSTO meeting, said that Armenia still remains a full member of the organization.
- I repeat once again, in my opinion, any member country of the organization should determine for itself what corresponds to its national interests. And we will treat it with respect. First. And the second thing is that Armenia has not announced its withdrawal. At least not yet. It has stated that it is taking a pause, but at the same time it supports all the documents that are adopted during our meeting today, during today's session of negotiations, and draws our attention to this very fact. If this is true, it means that there is a possibility that Armenia will return to full-scale work within the framework of this association," Vladimir Putin said.
The doors of all CSTO events are still "open" for Armenia, Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said earlier. "De jure, Yerevan remains a full member of the CSTO and thus retains all relevant rights and obligations," he specified.
However, the Astana summit is not the first time when the Armenian side refuses from the CSTO events. Yerevan has not participated in the organization's meetings since November 2023, and the party regularly ignores command and staff exercises.
Enlarged meeting of the Collective Security Council of the Collective Security Treaty Organization at the Palace of Independence in Astana. November 28, 2024
On September 18, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the CSTO threatens Armenia's security and sovereignty. At the same time, he said that Yerevan is close to the "point of no return" in its relations with the organization.
At the time, Pashinyan's statements provoked a reaction in the Kremlin. "We must categorically disagree with Mr. Pashinyan. No danger to Armenia's sovereignty can and does not emanate from the CSTO. On the contrary, this organization stands for the sovereignty of the member states. But we will patiently bring this position to the attention of the Armenian leadership," Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
How relations between Yerevan and the CSTO will develop
The Transcaucasian republic froze its participation in the CSTO back in February 2024. And in spring Yerevan refused to pay the membership fee. It should be noted that there is no such format as "freezing of participation" within the organization as a whole.
Yerevan made such a decision because the CSTO allegedly failed to properly support Armenia and protect Nagorno-Karabakh in the conflict with Baku in 2020 and 2023. Pashinyan even accused Russia of failing to fulfill its obligations to ensure collective security within the CSTO. At the same time, Moscow has repeatedly stressed that the sovereignty of Nagorno-Karabakh has not been recognized by any member of the military bloc, including Armenia itself. By the way, in 2022, Pashinyan himself signed the Prague Statement, according to which Yerevan, in fact, recognized Baku's sovereignty over the entire territory of the former Azerbaijani Soviet Union in the borders at the time of the collapse of the USSR, i.e. with Nagorno-Karabakh as part of it. In this context, the conflict was perceived by the Russian Federation as an internal affair of Azerbaijan, which, accordingly, did not entail the launch of a collective security mechanism.
A woman during mourning events on the occasion of the fourth anniversary of the end of the 44-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh at the Yerablur military pantheon, where soldiers killed during the hostilities are buried
On November 28, the Russian leader added: CSTO has nothing to do with it, because there was no external aggression against Armenia itself.
- The events in Karabakh have their own specifics: Armenia did not recognize Karabakh as an independent state and certainly did not include Karabakh in its perimeter. So everything that happened in Karabakh has nothing to do with Armenia legally, so it is a bit strange to claim that the CSTO should fight on the territory of this enclave," Vladimir Putin said.
However, Yerevan's relations have recently deteriorated not only with Moscow, but also with Minsk. The fact is that on May 15-16, 2024, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko visited Azerbaijan. During his visit, he also visited Karabakh, which came under Baku's control. And after talks with Ilham Aliyev, he told journalists that he had discussed with the Azerbaijani leadership the possibility of winning the war with Armenia in 2020 even before it started. Moreover, he called that war a war of liberation. Against this background, Pashinyan even demanded an apology from Lukashenko. "Theoretically, changes cannot be ruled out if, for example, Belarus itself decides to withdraw from the CSTO or Lukashenko utters such words of apology that will be acceptable to the Armenian people," he said.
It should be emphasized that in parallel with the cooling of relations with the CSTO, Armenia has adopted a course to strengthen ties with the EU and NATO. Thus, the republic has already repeatedly held joint exercises with the U.S., and in February 2024 Yerevan and Paris signed agreements on cooperation in the military sphere. However, the country is trying to maximize cooperation with the West not only in the military sphere. For example, in the summer of 2024, the EU started a dialogue on visa liberalization with the republic. A month ago, Armenia completed the collection of signatures for a referendum on its accession to the EU. This initiative was put forward by the Platform of Democratic Forces, which was formed by pro-Western political forces.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and EU diplomatic chief Josep Borrell at a press conference after the trilateral EU-U.S.-Armenia meeting. April 5, 2024
The West may be interested in the republic only in the context of a geopolitical confrontation with Russia in order to squeeze Russia out of the South Caucasus, says Dmitry Sidorov, head of the Moscow State Linguistic University's department, to Izvestia.
- Nevertheless, Armenia will seek to expand military and military-technical cooperation with the EU and NATO. And the republic's relations with the CSTO will probably continue to deteriorate," he believes.
Why Armenia may return to the CSTO
However, the number of citizens dissatisfied with Yerevan's chosen foreign policy course has been growing recently, Gegham Manukyan, a deputy from the opposition Armenia faction, told Izvestia.
- Often government officials advocate close cooperation with the European Union, but recently they have begun [in parliament] to criticize several parties that have been collecting signatures for a referendum on EU membership. How can the referendum solve this issue if no one in the EU is ready to accept Armenia," the MP says.
Armenian Army servicemen at the Interaction-2018 command-staff exercise of the Collective Security Treaty Organization Collective Rapid Reaction Forces in Kyrgyzstan of the Collective Security Treaty Organization's Collective Rapid Reaction Force in Kyrgyzstan
In any case, a full-fledged withdrawal of the country from the OSCE, one way or another, implies the search for a new security guarantor.
- But there is no such guarantor. That is why the current position of the Armenian leadership is incomprehensible. Disputable issues with the CSTO should be solved together with the organization. The CSTO's position is unambiguous, so the dialog should be open in order to solve all these issues," Gegham Manukyan says.
In the MP's opinion, Armenia will continue to cooperate with the CSTO in the current format because of the absence of a guarantor. In the future it may even return to the organization. The situation may change as early as next year, political scientist Iqbal Durre tells Izvestia.
- I think that tensions in the world next year will shift to the Middle East, to Iran. Armenia will need security guarantees. It cannot become a NATO member, and France will not be able to provide the republic with security guarantees. I think that one way or another, Armenia will return to the CSTO," he added.
Armenia's claims to the CSTO are groundless, said Kubatbek Rakhimov, Director of the Center for Strategic Solutions of Applikat (Kyrgyzstan), expert of the Valdai Club, in an interview with Izvestia. According to him, the current frozen state will remain until Yerevan amends the constitution and removes the mention of Karabakh, as well as until a peace treaty is signed with Azerbaijan.
- After that, the cooling off period will end. Armenia will not withdraw from the CSTO, because it will lead to serious consequences for the authorities, as some people in the country are categorically opposed to such reversals in Yerevan's foreign policy," he said.
One should not forget that a Russian military base has been stationed in Gyumri and Yerevan since 1995. According to the agreements of 2010, it will stay on the territory of the republic until 2044. Russia remains committed to its obligations to ensure Armenia's security both bilaterally and through the CSTO, Russian Ambassador to Yerevan Sergey Kopyrkin said earlier. "We adhere to the position that there are no comparable real alternatives to the Russian-Armenian allied interaction, including within the CSTO," he emphasized.
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