PASSIVE boycott: opposition work is blocked in Moldova after elections

After the elections in Moldova, the country's authorities have blocked any participation of the opposition in political processes, Ilan Shor, leader of the Victory bloc, told Izvestia. MPs who do not share the agenda of official Chisinau are not allowed to speak or vote for bills. The situation is also heating up in Moldovan society. As the results of the elections and the referendum on the country's accession to the EU have shown, citizens are almost divided into two camps: some are in favor of European integration, while others are in favor of rapprochement with Russia and the EAEU. The success of the pro-Western course of Maia Sandu and her PAS party will largely depend on the upcoming parliamentary elections in the summer. Whether the incumbent authorities will have to start a dialog with the opposition after all - in the material of "Izvestia".

Situation in Moldova after the elections

In Moldova after the presidential elections, which were held this fall, the current government in the person of Maia Sandu blocks any participation of the opposition in political processes, the leader of the "Victory" bloc Ilan Shor told "Izvestia".

- The country has received an illegitimate president. Our constitution has been subjected to yet another desecration, and a non-existent "European identity" has been inscribed there. <...> There is also lawlessness in the parliament. Our deputies are not allowed to speak or vote for bills. Therefore, we will use other legal methods to be heard," he said.

Pro-European candidate Maia Sandu, who has led the country since 2020, won the election. She garnered 55.33% of the vote. In second place was former Prosecutor General Alexander Stoianoglo with 44.67%. It should be emphasized that Sandu's victory was ensured by the support of the diaspora abroad. According to the results recorded at the polling stations on the territory of the republic, Stoianoglo won with 51.33% of votes, while Sandu got 48.67%. On the same day, a referendum on Moldova's European integration was also held: according to the Constitutional Court, the amendments to join the EU were supported by only 50.35% of those who voted.

After the announcement of the voting results, the opposition, citing numerous violations and ballot rigging by the European diaspora, refused to recognize them. Thus, the Socialist Party, as stated by its leader, former head of the republic Igor Dodon, is ready to go out for peaceful protests. The demonstration is planned for November 28, when the Constitutional Court controlled by the ruling party will decide on the election results and the confirmation of Sandu's presidential mandate.

The Victory bloc is also preparing several projects to prevent further usurpation of power, Ilan Shor said. In addition, the MPs have put forward a resolution of no confidence in the state's policy due to alleged mass violations during the elections. The initiative has so far been supported by nine deputies out of the 15 needed.

- Our resolution demanding the restoration of the independence of the electoral system was backed by MPs from the Party of Communists of Moldova. This is a direct and honest reaction of the opposition to the farce that the official Moldovan authorities called elections. <...> Now the authorities pretend that they have started reshuffling the government; even the PAS (PAS - Maia Sandu's party. - Ed.) minions are perplexed by these reshuffles," Shor added.

Thus, after the victory, Maia Sandu promised to "draw conclusions" and take into account the opinions of citizens and politicians who criticized the government, which did not allow for a sure victory in the end. In this regard, the president promised reshuffles in the Moldovan government by the end of the year. On November 18, the first cabinet reshuffles have already taken place.

Protests may start in Moldova

The whole election campaign in the republic took place against the background of serious pressure on the opposition. The situation began to deteriorate long before the plebiscite, when politicians not from the ruling party began to be subjected to mass searches and detentions. They were also subjected to criminal cases. One of the most notorious cases was the ineligibility of candidate Vasil Boli from the "Victory" bloc to participate in the elections. In addition, many opposition media outlets were shut down in the republic.

The situation is also aggravated by the overall division of Moldovan society. Maya Sandu from the beginning of coming to power adopted a course on European integration and distance from Moscow. It is noteworthy that in parallel with the turn towards the West and refusal from Russian energy resources, an energy crisis started in the republic, which was followed by an economic crisis. After that, the citizens of the country took two positions: pro-Western and aimed at rapprochement with Moscow and the Eurasian Economic Union. By the way, Alexander Stoianoglo was in favor of the second option. The Kremlin emphasized that the majority of the population in Moldova did not vote for Sandu. "As for Mrs. Sandu, you know that she is not, as far as we understand, the president of her country," Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Now the oppression of the opposition is likely to continue, which in turn will provoke both political and social tension, Dmitry Sidorov, head of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at Moscow State Linguistic University, told Izvestia.

- During her first presidential term, Maia Sandu relied on external support from European countries and actively used various instruments of pressure on the opposition. Why would she deviate from this model if it works? I expect that the heat of political passions will only grow. Against this background, the growth of protest activity of the population is not excluded. But the opposition forces lack consolidation," says the expert.

Political scientist Oleg Bondarenko, on the contrary, believes that there are no significant reasons for protests in the republic. They probably should have been expected right after the elections, but the situation is stable now. The situation will largely depend on the parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for the summer of 2025. And in the run-up to or after the vote, Sandu will have to build a dialog with the opposition.

The parliamentary elections in the country may even be more important than the presidential elections, as Moldova is a parliamentary republic. The candidate for the post of prime minister is nominated by the president, but it is the parliament that approves him. Accordingly, if Maia Sandu's political forces lose their majority, it will be difficult for her to promote a convenient candidate. Moreover, Sandu will have to nominate this candidate only after consultations with parliamentary factions. And if the opposition "takes" the legislature, the president will have to reckon with the majority coalition.

But even if Sandu manages to put "his" person in the Cabinet, according to the Moldovan constitution, the government is responsible to the parliament, and deputies can express no confidence in the prime minister or the Cabinet as a whole (however, after the resignation of the prime minister, the whole government leaves as well) - for this purpose the votes of a quarter of all deputies are enough.

- Parliamentary elections will not be able to consolidate the population around certain politicians, so I think that the ruling party will not have a majority of votes or at best something close to 50%. But still in the next parliament the majority will be against Sandu, - Oleg Bondarenko is sure.

Moreover, the current president will not be able to put much pressure on his opponents. For example, if the Socialist Party, which is now considered the main opposition party, is not registered for the upcoming parliamentary elections, then we should expect protests. However, Maya Sandu is not in favor of such activity, so it is unlikely to come to that, the expert concluded. Thus, the success in implementing Sandu's pro-Western course will largely depend on the composition of parliament.